bitcoin Faces Volatility Amidst Macro Trends and Policy changes
Bitcoinâs price is fluctuating between $78,000 and $82,000. The market is reacting too various factors, including macroeconomic shifts and policy updates.
Recently, Bitcoin briefly hit $90,000.However, it quickly fell back due to âsell-the-newsâ reactions.Events like the U.S. strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the White House Crypto Summit triggered this pullback. The Bitfinex Alpha report, shared with crypto.news, explains this trend.
Adding to the turbulence, $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired last Friday. This event caused meaningful price swings. the options marketâs realized volatility rose above 80%, with implied volatility spiking 35.7% before the summit. Traders were hedging their positions,causing the price dip.On-chain data shows traders lost $818 million daily, especially on February 28 and March 4. These were some of the biggest daily losses this cycle. The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dropped below 1.0, signaling distress selling. Short-term holders are particularly affected, with their SOPR at 0.95.This is the second-largest negative reading this cycle. If the bull market holds, these levels might attract buyers. But prolonged weakness could mean more declines.
Market sentiment is uncertain. The U.S. job market is strong, with 151,000 new jobs in February. Yet, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% due to government job cuts. Wage growth is strong, but inflation and trade issues pose risks. The manufacturing sector faces challenges from new tariffs,increasing production costs and slowing orders.
Regulatory changes are reshaping the crypto landscape. President Trumpâs Strategic Bitcoin Reserve now holds 187,000 BTC, worth $13 billion. This shift shows the U.S. is treating Bitcoin as a national asset, not just a seized asset. The administration plans stablecoin laws by August and ending Operation Choke Point 2.0.In Japan, crypto-friendly tax reforms are coming. these include a 20% capital gains tax on digital assets and tax breaks for crypto-to-crypto trades.Such moves could boost investment. The Reserveâs holdings signal a policy change from selling seized Bitcoin to keeping it. The Reserveâs move reflects growing acceptance. Stablecoin rules are due by August. Ending Operation Choke Point 2.0 could ease restrictions. These changes aim to stabilize the market. The Reserveâs stance suggests a policy shift. The Reserveâs holdings show the U.S. sees Bitcoin as valuable.The Reserveâs move could encourage more crypto adoption.
Bitcoinâs Price Swings Amid Economic and policy Shifts
Bitcoinâs price is bouncing between $78,000 and $82,000. The market is reacting to macroeconomic changes and policy updates.
Bitcoin recently peaked at $90,000 but quickly fell due to âsell-the-newsâ reactions. Events like the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the White House Crypto Summit caused this pullback, according to the Bitfinex Alpha report shared with crypto.news.
Adding to the volatility, $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired last Friday, causing significant price swings. The options marketâs realized volatility surged above 80%, with implied volatility jumping 35.7% ahead of the summit.
On-chain data revealed widespread losses, with traders recording $818 million in realized losses per day, particularly on February 28 and March 4. The Bitcoin Spent Output profit Ratio (SOPR) fell below 1.0, signaling distress selling.Short-term holders are particularly affected,with their SOPR at 0.95.
Regulatory changes are reshaping the crypto landscape. President Trumpâs Strategic Bitcoin Reserve now holds 187,000 BTC,worth $13 billion. This shift shows the U.S. is treating Bitcoin as a national asset. The Reserveâs move could encourage more crypto adoption.
Uncertainty in the broader economy is also contributing to market hesitancy. The U.S. job market remains strong, with 151,000 jobs added in February, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% amid government job cuts. Wage growth is robust, but inflationary pressures and trade disruptions pose risks.
Meanwhile, regulatory shifts could reshape the crypto landscape. The administration is pushing for stablecoin legislation by August and an end to restrictive policies like Operation Choke Point 2.0. In Japan, crypto-friendly tax reforms are being introduced, including a 20% capital gains tax on digital assets and tax deferrals on crypto-to-crypto swaps
