Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Still Relevant?
As Bitcoin gains traction among financial institutions,corporations,and governments,some market observers question the relevance of its four-year cycle model. Let’s explore this concept and why doubts are emerging.
An X account, bitcoin Archive, polled users on the relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles.In just ten hours, over 10,000 votes were cast, with 52% believing the cycles are over. this doesn’t confirm the cycles’ obsolescence but highlights a changing landscape.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle stems from the ‘halving’ event, where mining rewards are halved roughly every four years.This reduces new Bitcoin supply, driving up prices due to increased scarcity. Historically, within 12-18 months post-halving, Bitcoin hits new all-time highs, followed by a bear market.
However, recent trends challenge this model. In 2021, Bitcoin saw only a 57% growth rate due to a strong bear market.In 2024, many miners held onto their coins, expecting higher prices, rather than selling.
The latest halving in 2024 saw bitcoin reach $108,786 by January 2025. Yet, despite favorable conditions, the price has been volatile. This uncertainty has led some, like Syncracy Capital’s Ryan Watkins, to argue that the four-year cycle may be outdated.
Watkins believes Bitcoin is entering a new era of greater adoption and maturity, influenced by institutional investors and government support. While nearly half still trust the four-year cycle, global economic uncertainty complicates predictions. The crypto
